Cars from Chinese brands are no longer forecast to depreciate faster than established models. An analysis prepared for the UK car market points to a gap of only 0.16 percentage points in favour of Chinese brands after three years and about 58,000 kilometres.
The difference is almost negligible
The data analysed by Auto Express come from forecasts by CDL Vehicle Information Services. On average, models from Chinese brands are estimated to retain 46.16% of their new value after three years and 36,000 miles, or about 57,900 kilometres.
Models from non-Chinese brands have an estimated average residual value of 46.00%. The difference is so small that it cannot be used on its own to choose between two cars. It does show that the assumption that any Chinese brand loses value quickly is no longer supported by these forecasts.
The analysis separates Chinese brands from brands under Chinese ownership that already have a known identity in Europe, such as Volvo, Polestar, Lotus, Smart and MG. The latter group reaches an estimated average of 42.60%, below the two groups compared directly.
Results differ sharply by segment
The advantage does not appear in every car class. In the SUV segment, non-Chinese brands retain 47.14% of value on average, against 46.59% for Chinese brands. The gap is 0.55 percentage points in favour of established brands.
Chinese brands, however, have better forecasts in the lower-medium, upper-medium and MPV classes. The estimated figures are 40.92% against 40.45% in lower-medium, 47.65% against 43.17% in upper-medium and 54.52% against 44.30% in MPV.
In small cars the result reverses again. Non-Chinese brands have an estimated average residual value of 45.68%, while Chinese brands reach 40.89%.
Chinese electrics hold slightly more
The difference is more visible when the comparison is made by powertrain type. For electric cars, the forecast indicates a residual value of 44.57% for Chinese brands and 43.41% for non-Chinese brands.
For plug-in hybrid models, the estimated figures are 46.68% for Chinese brands and 44.94% for non-Chinese brands. For petrol cars the comparison is 48.27% to 45.86%, and for conventional hybrids 48.71% to 47.84%.
Why the starting price matters
Part of the explanation lies in how Chinese brands are positioned. They typically enter the market with lower prices and extensive equipment, which narrows the gap between the new price and the estimated value after three years.
For electric cars, the analysis also notes buyer-support schemes. If a new model receives a subsidy or is sold at a discount, the amount actually paid can be lower than the official list price, and that changes how percentage depreciation should be read.
What this means for buyers in Romania
The results cannot be transferred automatically to the Romanian market. The forecasts are built for the United Kingdom, where prices, taxation, financing, the service network and demand for used cars differ from those in Romania.
For a buyer, the residual value of a specific model may matter more than the average for a country of origin. Warranty cover, parts availability, the number of dealers, discount policy and demand for the brand can change the resale price substantially.
