Volkswagen Group has cut its 2026 operating return on sales forecast to a maximum of 1%, down from the previous range of 4–5.5%. The revised outlook was published on 18 September after the group reassessed the value of its Porsche business and the conditions in China.
Volkswagen now expects group revenue of around €315 billion. That is close to the midpoint of its earlier outlook, while 2025 revenue stood at €321.9 billion. The main change is on the earnings side, where special effects are expected to weigh heavily on operating profit.
Around €10 billion in special effects
Volkswagen expects roughly €10 billion in special effects to affect operating profit in 2026. About €900 million had already been recognised in the first half of the year. Excluding those items, the group says the operating return on sales would be about 4%.
The largest item is a non-cash impairment of around €6 billion on goodwill allocated to Porsche. Volkswagen linked the impairment test to Porsche’s updated medium- and long-term planning and revised assumptions for the business.
Additional effects of around €2 billion include expanded early-retirement schemes, the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück GmbH and impairment charges on assets held by fully consolidated companies in China. Most of the extra special items are expected to appear in the third-quarter accounts.
China and the shift towards EVs
Volkswagen said operating earnings are being affected by a further deterioration in the market environment, especially in China, and by an accelerated shift in demand towards battery-electric vehicles. The group expects the consequences to be particularly visible at Audi and Volkswagen Passenger Cars.
The Automotive division’s net cash flow target remains between €3 billion and €6 billion. Net liquidity is still expected to be between €32 billion and €34 billion in 2026.
The updated forecast assumes that current international tariff conditions continue. Volkswagen has not included possible future effects from the escalation in the Middle East because they cannot yet be reliably assessed. The group plans to publish its interim financial statements for the nine months to 30 September on 29 October.
Image: Volkswagen Group.
